UBC 2023 Final Day 2: Match 8, Game 1 - Other Level

Position Analysis Checker Play
1

Here was a really fun checker play by Sander in the first game of match 8 today (see the YouTube stream at 4:09:45 for the action and full commentary):

XGID=-ABCaBC-----bB-a--Bcbacb--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:7:10 
    1. Rollout¹    5/1 5/4*                     eq:-0.156
      Player:   49.21% (G:19.09% B:0.33%)
      Opponent: 50.79% (G:20.53% B:0.48%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.162..-0.150) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹    6/1                          eq:-0.314 (-0.159)
      Player:   44.92% (G:5.67% B:0.08%)
      Opponent: 55.08% (G:12.08% B:0.21%)
      Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.322..-0.307) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
      Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Justin's (on commentary) first impulse was to play 6/1 and then was (excitedly) surprised to see Sander look at 5/1 5/4* almost instantly :slight_smile:

Justin (after Mochy's return fan):

And the fan... if we look at an equity table what the play must be worth after the 16 number that fan, he must be doing great right? ... you just get paid so much on those fans.

Indeed he is, heh :smiley:

image

And some parting comments from Justin:

Always try to do the most important thing first. [For example,] instead of just playing 6/1, you are really playing 5/1 then consider how to play the ace ...

... a top 1% sort of play; that was other level.

Fun stuff!

2 Likes
2

That was such a nice find. I resonated with what Justin said relating to another of Sander’s banana splits: that many good players will at least look at it, and maybe even conclude that it’s probably the best move. And still not play it, on the statistical logic that it’s rarely correct, and when the idea is overapplied it’s often a big blunder. Sander really showed some courage, and IIRC, found two correct banana splits today. That is not easy!

Just imagining that dice distribution on a dance might help me summon the cojones to pull the trigger, next time I catch one of these in the wild!

3

Here is one of them 2:43:43. This one is right by ++ but only when Mochy is holding the cube at 4 (as he was in the match). If you make it 2-cube, then it's a big blunder. Anyone care to help me understand the nuance here?

XGID=-aBBBBB-C--Ab----bbbbca--A:2:-1:1:42:0:0:0:7:10

XGID=-aBBBBB-C--Ab----bbbbca--A:2:-1:1:42:0:0:0:7:10
1 Like
4

Pasting that XGID into my XG didn’t get the right position, but I was able to get it from the video. Amazing play! In my opinion, this was harder to find than the other. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a banana split using a 4.

5

Fixed. This took me a bit to figure out what happened. In a blockquote, some double hyphens get converted to em dashes... :cry: Specifically it seems to get any double hyphen immediately preceding a capital letter. This is unfortunate. I will look to see if I can't perhaps disable this somewhere in the site settings. In the mean time I made a post in the Questions & Feedback topic documenting the issue and workaround.

6

Nice detective work!