Money Game Position

My awesome position:

Why is it so much better to leave a blot on my bar point than on the 22 point?
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That is, XG prefers Bar/23 8/7 over Bar/22 by 0.161.

Welcome, and thanks for posting a position! (how was the experience?)

My attempt:

The 2 is forced (bar/23) and then you are looking for your best ace.

  • 23/22: This doesn’t really accomplish anything versus just staying on the 23.
  • 11/10: Same reasoning as 23/22.
  • 8/7: This slots a point you really want to make, hoping to extend your prime and block 6s for White’s glued back checkers. If White misses, you are in good shape to make the 7-point. If White hits, you have a good chance to get an anchor and/or hit back (no real hit and covers? and you have a slightly better board). Also, there is some duplication of 6’s for White and also you get a good 6 from the bar if White hits you on the 18 or 23.

Now someone who really knows what they are doing can chime in :stuck_out_tongue:

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Here is the ++ result if anyone wants it:

1. XG Roller++ Bar/23 8/7                   eq:-0.173
  Player:   47.25% (G:16.84% B:1.16%)
  Opponent: 52.75% (G:28.74% B:2.17%)

2. XG Roller++ Bar/23 11/10                 eq:-0.198 (-0.026)
  Player:   47.37% (G:17.08% B:1.34%)
  Opponent: 52.63% (G:28.17% B:1.92%)

3. XG Roller++ Bar/23 6/5                   eq:-0.234 (-0.061)
  Player:   46.38% (G:16.61% B:1.25%)
  Opponent: 53.62% (G:29.73% B:2.10%)

4. XG Roller++ Bar/22                       eq:-0.329 (-0.156)
  Player:   44.75% (G:17.02% B:1.50%)
  Opponent: 55.25% (G:32.77% B:2.65%)

Looking at this, I don’t really have any ideas why bar/22 is so much worse than the 2nd and 3rd best plays (perhaps your actual question?).

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Thanks for the insights, Brett. I’ll try to post analysis with future positions.

Sounds to me like you know what you’re doing! In general, duplication is an overused concept and there are usually more important factors. But in this position, you’re already getting hit on the 18pt or the 23pt with sixes, so it doesn’t really cost anything extra to offer another hitting six. When your opponent doesn’t roll a six (or one), the upside is huge: if they don’t hit, you’ll be a favorite! Stepping up to the 22pt would just give your opponent another number to hit, fives, greatly increasing the chances you’ll end up on the bar.