Hit once or twice?

Positions
1

My awesome position:

XGID=-a----E-CA-adD---d-e-A--A-:0:0:1:52:1:3:0:5:10

13/11* is clear, but what are you going to do with the 5? Does the score matter?

JLee

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2

My attempt:

I looked quickly at making the 4-point, but then agreed that 13/11* is a must. For the 5:

  • 21/16 looks to run, but we end up only 10 pips ahead with white on roll;
  • 13/8 adds a builder to the 8, while stripping the midpoint;
  • 6/1* puts a second checker up and starts a blitz.

The double hit puts two up, with 10 in the zone at a score where gammons are super efficient. If white misses, then I suspect there is some cube action at this score. But... we leave 5 blots. If we are hit on the ace, we have good opportunity to secure an advanced anchor, clean up some, and/or continue the attack (albeit with only 9 checkers). Overall, I think the benefits outweigh the risk and the double hit is thematic at this score.

I think I would make the same play at normal scores? Running seems super weak and two down leaves a whole bunch of replies.

... hopefully I'm not too far off. This one is/was trickier for me than I would like. I find most decisions still uncomfortable, even a third roll...

I am looking forward to others' comments.

3

I can't add somethig to your analysis and would do the double hit at all scores where I need at least 2 points. When I need only one point I'll probbly go with 21-16

4

I'm not worried about the 5 blots, as long as we double hit! Putting two up offers temporary protection against fly shots and getting hit loose on the 4pt. It's strong enough that I think I would hit twice even if we weren't at Gammon Go, though running with the 5 would be tempting.

5

I don't think I gave the running play enough respect.

6 
    1. RolloutĀ¹    13/11* 6/1*                  eq:+0.521
      Player:   52.24% (G:16.71% B:1.10%)
      Opponent: 47.76% (G:15.81% B:2.14%)
      Confidence: Ā±0.014 (+0.507..+0.534) - [99.8%]
      Duration: 50 minutes 31 seconds

  * 2. RolloutĀ¹    21/16 13/11*                 eq:+0.492 (-0.029)
      Player:   54.02% (G:14.28% B:1.46%)
      Opponent: 45.98% (G:15.38% B:2.12%)
      Confidence: Ā±0.014 (+0.478..+0.507) - [0.2%]
      Duration: 55 minutes 44 seconds


Ā¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
   Search interval: Huge

The consensus was to hit loose on the ace point. The score matters a lot. At -4/-2, we seek gammonish positions. The rollout shows we win a lot fewer games, but a lot more gammons.

Here's the evaluation (XGR++) of the same position at unlimited.

    1. XG Roller++ 21/16 13/11*                 eq:+0.119
      Player:   53.09% (G:14.36% B:0.65%)
      Opponent: 46.91% (G:12.80% B:0.62%)

    2. XG Roller++ 13/11* 6/1*                  eq:+0.092 (-0.027)
      Player:   51.65% (G:16.27% B:0.45%)
      Opponent: 48.35% (G:12.98% B:0.67%)
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