Awkward 43 to play

Positions
1
XGID=-a-a--E-C-A-cD---cbe--B---:0:0:1:43:1:0:0:5:10
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2

When things get awkward I always look at hitting a blot Not the case this time though.

The move gnubg suggests is reasonable but I would have never found it over the board.

3

Let's not discuss any bot analysis, even obliquely, until the rollout information is posted. Thanks.

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4 
    1. Rollout¹    13/10 6/2                    eq:-0.114
      Player:   45.25% (G:11.44% B:0.62%)
      Opponent: 54.75% (G:12.61% B:0.55%)
      Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.128..-0.101) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 53 minutes 08 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    13/10 13/9                   eq:-0.151 (-0.036)
      Player:   44.82% (G:11.72% B:0.73%)
      Opponent: 55.18% (G:13.85% B:0.62%)
      Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.164..-0.137) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 55 minutes 50 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    13/9 6/3*                    eq:-0.175 (-0.060)
      Player:   44.99% (G:12.41% B:1.15%)
      Opponent: 55.01% (G:15.83% B:0.83%)
      Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.189..-0.160) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 hour 01 minute

    4. Rollout¹    13/10 8/4                    eq:-0.191 (-0.077)
      Player:   43.92% (G:10.63% B:0.58%)
      Opponent: 56.08% (G:13.18% B:0.63%)
      Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.204..-0.178) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 59 minutes 46 seconds

    5. Rollout¹    10/3*                        eq:-0.231 (-0.116)
      Player:   43.15% (G:11.22% B:0.71%)
      Opponent: 56.85% (G:14.01% B:0.64%)
      Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.244..-0.217) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 58 minutes 20 seconds


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
   Search interval: Huge

This is a tough play. Hitting seems like a decent idea when you have nothing better to do. The problem with hitting is that you often want to hit loose as a tempo play. This position does not call for a tempo move.

13/10 6/2 is the only play that does two things:

  • It makes a new point (the 10 point)
  • It unstacks the unsightly 6 point mountain.

JLee

5

I discarded hitting because there is no need for a tempo hit, and the alternative is to make a point. It's awkward but at least if we make a point we get something out of it. Then, the 4 is either down or slot the 2. The checker is under more danger but is more useful on the 9pt: I roughly cancel out those two factors. So the question becomes Strip the midpoint or Unstack your heaviest point? That practically answers itself.

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